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EFEB30BD-9385-461F-BBF6-25FED5783482-2486-0000028322EA7324China’s economy grew by 6.5% in the third quarter according to official figures published this morning.

It was the slowest rate since the depths of the financial crisis in the first quarter of 2009, and slightly below economists’ forecasts of 6.6% growth.

It followed growth of 6.7% in the second quarter, and the slowdown of the world’s second largest economy is expected to continue as the effects of China’s trade war with the US are increasingly felt.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, gives his take:

Official GDP growth slowed last quarter consistent with broader evidence that the economy is cooling. There are some early signs in the September data that policy support is starting to gain traction, but we think more easing will still be needed in order to stabilise growth.

Looking ahead, we doubt the latest pick-up in infrastructure spending will be enough to prevent the economy from cooling further in the coming quarters.

Policy easing has yet to reverse the downward trajectory in broad credit growth, a key headwind to the economy, and front-loading by US importers means that the impact of tariffs has yet to be felt.

We anticipate a further loosening of both monetary and fiscal policy in the coming months, which should put a floor under growth by about the middle of 2019.

Also coming up today, UK public finance figures for September at 9.30am BST will provide insight into how much spending room the chancellor, Philip Hammond, might have ahead of his budget on 29 October.

Stay with us for updates on the latest news from business and markets.


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